Few
things are certain in life, but one of the best bets concerns the voting for the
Baseball Hall of Fame’s class of 2020, the results of which will be announced
next month. Derek Jeter is on the ballot
and he’ll be elected. You can bet your house on it, if you can get anyone to
bite.
The only
suspense involves whether the verdict of the baseball writers will be
unanimous. That never happened until last year, when shortstop Jeter’s New York
Yankees’ teammate Mariano Rivera, the sterling relief pitcher, swept the table.
Not even Babe Ruth had done that; the game’s best player ever was named on just
95.1% of the votes cast for the Hall’s first class, in 1936. That figure, however, and others that year,
should contain asterisks because it was a helluva ballot and limits on the
number of names the scribes could list probable cost many worthies unanimous
consent. For example, Cy Young polled just 49%.
Jeter
might not have matched Young’s never-to-be-topped pitching stats but his are
well beyond those of the “normal” star, among them 3,465 regular-season hits,
14 All Star Game selections in a 20-year career and five World Series rings,
although he had help getting those last things. Perhaps equally impressive, he
survived his lengthy bachelorhood in the tabloid capital with his good name
pretty much unscathed. They ought to etch that into his Cooperstown plaque.
Jeter’s
is one of 18 first-time names on the 2020 ballot and the only one likely to
come close to the 75% approval rate of the 400-plus electors needed for
election. Indeed, only four others—Paul Konerko, Cliff Lee, Bobby Abreu and
Adam Dunn—likely to approach the 5% vote needed to survive until the 2021
voting. If I were still voting I’d include only Jeter and Konerko among my 10
choices, with Pauly getting a nod mostly on the sentimental ground of leading
the Chicago White Sox to their long-sought 2005 World Series victory.
Most of
the interest in this year’s balloting will center on players who have been
found wanting previously but whose vote totals suggest future hope. They are
the pitchers Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens, shortstop Omar Visquel and the
sluggers Barry Bonds and Larry Walker.
Clemens and Bonds should be lumped together because both were, without
doubt, the best at what they did during their common era, but whose reps were
damaged by their well-established use of performance-enhancing drugs while they
played, in violation of baseball’s rules.
The two run as a sort of entry—1
and 1A—and their vote totals have risen in tandem, from about 37% in 2013,
their first year on the writers’ ballot, to about 59% last year, their seventh.
If they don’t make it this year they’ll get two more tries, after which their
cases will be moved to one of the Hall’s veterans’ committees.
The
votes for Bonds and Clemens serve as a referendum on what I call baseball’s
HITS era—for Heads In The Sand—regarding steroids use, roughly 1990 to 2005. Negative
feelings about that period were strong initially, as shown by Bonds’ and
Clemens’ two-thirds 2013 rejection rate, but they’ve softened in more-recent
years. I didn’t vote for either of them when I had a ballot, and never would.
It’s wrong to think they’ve been exiled from the Hall because their records are
celebrated there and their photos and videos are displayed; it’s just their
plaques that are absent. My guess is they won’t make it this time but will
eventually, alas.
Schilling’s
case is different. Everyone agrees he was an excellent pitcher day in and out
and a great big-gamer, and apparently drug-free. His problem has been his
mouth, which he can’t manage to keep shut. Among his many targets (women,
Muslims, liberals) have been the news media, and it isn’t a good idea to piss
off the writers when they’re the ones who vote for the Hall. I voted for him
when I could because I thought his being a jerk shouldn’t be disqualifying. He
got about 61% in 2018 and probably won’t get in this time, but just might
before he’s off the ballot after 2022.
Walker
is in his last year on the writers’ ballot and hit a high of 54% last year. He
was a very good hitter, with a .313 lifetime average over 17 seasons, but his
other stats aren’t overwhelming. Also, his best years (1995-2004) were in the
Colorado Rockies’ light-air Denver ballpark, which many believe makes hitters
look better than they are.
Visquel got 43% last year, and won’t make it
this time either, but will eventually, I hope. Wizard fielders like him are
underrepresented in Cooperstown.
There will be two more inductees at
the Hall’s summer ceremony, Ted Simmons and the late Marvin Miller, both chosen
by one of the Hall’s veterans committees. Their stories are quite different.
Simmons was a durable (21-season) catcher whose hitting stats and other qualifications
were always very good but never great. He had one shot at the writers’ ballot,
in 1993, but didn’t reach the 5% survival floor. After he retired as a player
in 1988, though, he stayed around the game as a coach, scout and executive and,
apparently, made many friends. Hall election at every level is in part a
popularity contest that doesn’t end when the spikes are hung up.
Miller, a former economist for the
United Steel Workers union, which I once covered, became the head of the game’s
players’ association in 1966 and led it for 16 years. In that span it went from
a vest-pocket operation to one of the nation’s most visible and potent unions, one
that won pay raises and work-rule agreements that opened the way for
revolutionary changes to the economics of baseball and all other American sports.
Along with Babe Ruth and Jackie Robinson he was one the most-influential sports
figures of the 20th century.
Miller made few friends among the game’s leaders; in fact, he told his
members that if the execs liked him he wasn’t doing his job. Animosity towards
him blocked his Hall membership for years. He took that as a badge of honor and
promised not to attend an induction ceremony if he were elected and swore his
children to keep that pledge. That’s okay, though. His Hall plaque will be a
necessary reminder of the change his efforts wrought.