DEVALUATION

 

               In my columnizing days I covered the U.S. Open tennis tournament annually, and got a kick out of the way the New York crowds cheered for the underdogs in early-round play and, after some won, complained that famous players were gone. Much the same thing now is happening in all our major sports as playoffs expand and more teams are added.

               Exhibit A was the just-concluded baseball World Series. With the post-season tourney field newly expanded to 12 teams from 10 the finalists were a No. 6 seed, the National League Arizona Diamondbacks, and a No. 5, the American League Texas Rangers. The D’Backs came into the Series with an 84-78 regular-season won-lost mark, the third-worst record ever for a World Series contestant (the two worse were the 1973 New York Mets, at 82-79, and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, 83-78, who won). The Rangers brought a 90-72 record to the fray, setting the two-team win total at 174. That was the lowest such figure ever for the event.

People in Arizona and the Dallas area couldn’t have been happier, of course, but the rest of the nation was underjoyed. Television ratings for the five-game Series (won by the Rangers four games to one) were the lowest on record, with viewership averaging less than 10 million a game. By contrast, about that many people tuned in to the NCAA women’s basketball championship final last March between LSU and Iowa.

The TV numbers were the latest—and most vivid—recent example of the Law of Unintended Consequences. In answering public demand to expand their playoffs our sports major leagues have devalued both them and their regular seasons, our major entertainments and their main sources of revenue. The more games our teams play the less valuable each becomes. This invokes another popular saw, the Law of Diminishing Returns.   

Exhibit B (or, rather, 1A) is the National Basketball Association. It spread its playoff tent last season with a complicated arrangement of “play-in” games, and wound up with a final involving the Miami Heat, which had only the seventh-best won-lost record (44-38) in the Eastern Conference.

Schedule length in any sport is determined by commerce, not competition. They’re all too long, topped by MLB’s 162 games, but the NBA’s 82-gamer is the most problematic because its first half (the months of November, December and January) is played in the shadow of the National Football League, the undisputed champion of the airwaves. Until Christmas only aficionados pay much attention to the hoopsters, and then not really until the playoffs approach around March.

The NBA is trying to remedy that this season with an in-season tournament plucked whole from England’s soccer Premier League, the theft extending to its terminology (“group play” and “knockout rounds”, with a “cup” that goes to the winner). Running from November 3 through December 9, it’s being contested initially by six units of five teams each followed by a single-elimination go-around culminating in a final. All games save the final will count in the regular-season standings, with winning-team players pocketing $500,000 each.  That’s a nice prize even in a loop in which eight-figure annual salaries are common. So far the tourney has been met mostly with guffaws, but at worst it couldn’t hurt.

The NFL also has extended its playoffs in recent seasons and beginning last year did the same with its regular season, going from 16 games to 17. That addition (about 6%) is equivalent to 10 more MLB games. Schedules change only in one direction (longer), and sports leagues loathe odd numbers (home-road equity, don’tcha know?), so another boost to 18 games surely will follow.   

In the NFL the main consequence of more games is more injuries, the unavoidable result of football’s bruising nature. After about week three of the schedule every player is nursing some sort of hurt, and more-serious, game-missing injuries are common. Football is unique in that its most-valuable players—quarterbacks—also are its most vulnerable, and this year fully one-third of its putative starting QBs have missed at least a game while healing. The big question each year at playoff time isn’t so much which team is best as which is healthiest.

As NBA basketball becomes faster and on-court collisions harder and more frequent, injuries become more common, and the too-long schedule more of a grind. The league has recognized this by going corporate, legitimizing star absences with what it calls “load management.“  That means it’s okay for players to sit out games from time to time for no other reason than rest.

As I reported in my blog of last May 15, the league’s dozen-best players (Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Luca Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Ja Morant, Damian Lillard and Jimmy Butler) missed an average of 23 games each last season, or about 28% of their teams’ schedules. Theatrical plays notify patrons through program notes when leads are being replaced by stand-ins. NBA teams should do the same.

Indeed, they should go further by putting a warning on tickets saying the purchase price doesn’t guarantee the presence of either team’s stars. Fans bear the costs of schedule devaluation, as they do most things. But hey! It’s only your money if you give it to them.

 

 

FALL BALL '23

 

October and November are my favorite months in Arizona. One reason is that by this time the temperatures have abated somewhat from their sizzling summer highs. Another is the Arizona Fall League, the annual gathering of selected young baseball prospects seeking Major League futures. The young men play a six-week, 36-game schedule at six of the Phoenix area’s fine spring-training ball parks. It’s baseball at its purist and most accessible.

For reasons best known to itself, Major League Baseball moved the league’s start up by a week this time, incurring a Big Heat overlap. It also moved from a mostly day games to a mostly nights schedule, and changed the day-game starting times to 2:30 p.m. from 12:30. Neither of those changes were popular with the old timers who make up most of the league’s public, and attendance has fallen. Us codgers are used to being dissed, though.

MLB uses the Fall League to try out possible rule changes. There were a bunch of those last year, in the name of faster play, but few this time around. One changed the permitted time between pitches with runners on base to 18 seconds from 20, and it went off without much notice. The other was more interesting, permitting ball-strike challenges to pitchers, catchers and batters provided they be done immediately, without bench input.

 Each teams gets three per game, with successful appeals not counting. This took place only at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, the only park wired for it.  When a challenge was called the strike-zone rectangle was shown on the park’s TV screen and the ball zoomed in, for good or ill. I generally oppose electronic interference in our games, but this one was handled with dispatch and was kind of fun. Look for it at your local big-league park.

 Putting on my scout’s hat (actually, the one I usually wear), I attended a goodly number of AFL games during the season’s first five weeks. I judged the general level of play to be a tad below that of some past years, with no flaming talents like those of Vlad Guerrero Jr., Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant revealing themselves. Some of the kids could play, though, and will be appearing in the triple-decked stadia in due time. About 60% of all fall leaguers make it to the Bigs, and this crew should be no exception.

The best pitcher I saw was Ricky Tiedemann, 21, a left hander owned by the Toronto Blue Jays. Standing 6-foot-4, he has a mid-90s fastball and a nice array of breaking pitches, which he isn’t afraid to use late in counts. A third-round draft choice in 2021, he’s already made it to AA, and should be ready for serious promotion in a year.

The best hitter I saw was Dominic Keegan, of the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s a solidly built customer who has hit well at the college (Vanderbilt U.) and minor-league levels, and continued that pattern here with numerous multi-hit games. In one game I saw he got the only two hits the above-named Tiedemann allowed in a five-inning stint, and a double and home run at that.  He’s listed as a catcher, but his bio also mentions other posts, meaning it isn’t written in stone. But wherever he plays his bat should make him welcome.

My team, the Chicago Cubs, has two prime prospects here, Kevin Alcantara and James Triantos. The 21-year-old Alcantara is the better-known of the two, having come to the Cubs in the traumatic 2021 trade that sent All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo to the New York Yankees.  Alcantara is tough to miss in the field, standing a very skinny 6-foot-6. His height makes for a long swing and he can look bad whiffing, as he often does, but when he connects he shows real power, and he’s graceful afield. Also, he has a lot of shtick, including the nickname “The Jaguar” and a well-rehearsed home-run bat flip, so he’ll be fun when (if) he makes it to Wrigley Field.

               Triantos isn’t impressive physically but plays with intent and has been among the AFL batting leaders all season with plus-400 marks. In one game I saw he had four solid hits, including a single that sent the contest into extra innings. He’s a second baseman, which could be a problem because the Cubs have a long-term incumbent there in Nico Hoerner.  Any hitter like Triantos should find a place somewhere, though.

               The Chicago White Sox’s top AFL prospect is shortstop Colson Montgomery, their top draft choice in 2022. At a filled-out 6-foot-3, and left-handed batting stance, he’s a Corey Seager look alike, but he hasn’t been Seager-like here. Still, Montgomery showed  some moxie in a game Monday in which he came up in a tied ninth inning with the bases loaded and one out. With a 3-2 count against a lefty reliefer he fouled off four pitches, then drove a deep fly ball past a drawn-in outfield to drive in the winning run. The Sox need a shortstop, and his draft status alone ensures him a look.

               I like short players with pop, and Corey Rosier meets that description. He’s with the Boston Red Sox chain. He’s fast afoot and makes good contact with his short swing. Another good little guy is shortstop Nasim Nunez, a 23-year-old Miami Marlins prospect. He’s sharp in the field and his 52 stolen bases in 125 minor-league games last season adds to his attraction.

                At 6-3 and 230 pounds ,Aaron Sabato looks like the home-run hitter he is, currently leading the league with seven. One on Monday cleared the 410-foot mark in Glendale Stadium with room to spare. He’s with the Minnesota Twins.

               An interesting experiment here involves Reggie Crawford, a San Francisco Giants prospect. Drafted in round one as a pitcher, his 6-4, 235 frame also looks hitterish, and he was sent here to get some swings. Alas, a new Ohtani doesn’t seem likely, because Crawford has been sub-.200 at the plate all season, and never showed much in the games I watched.

               There’s still a week and a half to go in the season, so come on out if you can. A game is well worth the price of admission, which is 10 bucks. It’s a rare bargain these days.