Voting
materials are out for the 2019 class of the Baseball Hall of Fame and, as
usual, the top-of- the-ballot choices are easiest. Among the 20 first-timers
the peerless New York Yankees’ reliever Mariano Rivera is a shoo-in, a probable
unanimous selection or nearly so. Among the 15 holdovers from previous
elections Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina are the likeliest inductees,
having received 70.4% and 63.5% of the vote, respectively, the last time
around. When someone gets that close he usually tops the magic 75% mark among
the sportswriter electorate the next year.
Martinez’s
selection was all but assured last week when one of the Hall’s Veterans
Committees elevated the ex-Chicago White Sox Harold Baines to membership.
Baines was a designated higher for most of his career and his election seems to
remove whatever bias the Hall holds against players who filled that role.
Martinez was the American League’s leading practitioner of the DH art for much
of his career (1987-2004). The annual award for the best in that category is
named for him.
Mussina,
another ex-Yankee and like Martinez in his sixth year on the ballot, should
have been elected by now. His 270 career wins (versus 153 losses) are about the
most we’ll be seeing as starting-pitcher roles diminish in the game, and he
ranks high in other Hall measures as well. I voted for him (and Martinez) when
I was an elector and would do so again.
For me,
though, the real interest in this election is in the down-ballot voting, among
the players for whom Hall support is an acquired taste. The recent spate of
first-time winners (Chipper Jones and Jim Thome last year, Ivan Rodriguez the
year before) obscures the fact that most eventual Famers built their vote
totals gradually toward the 75% mark. Mussina, for instance, polled only 20% in
his initial listing in 2014, and just 24% the next year. His record hasn’t
changed with the years, but perceptions about it have.
I’ll be
watching to see how three other ballot newcomers fare when the results are
announced on January 22. Pitchers Roy Halladay and Andy Pettitte are two of
them, and first baseman Todd Helton is the third. I don’t expect any of them to
gain admission this time but their chances down the road seem pretty good.
The
Halladay-Pettitte matchup is particularly interesting. Lefty Pettitte pitched
longer than righty Halladay (18 seasons to 16) and had a lot more wins (256 to
205), but Pettitte played for the mighty Yankees during most of his career
while Halladay labored for the usually so-so Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia
Philllies. The Yankee connection is why a major Pettitte accomplishment, his record
for most post-season victories (19), is on his resume. Head-to-head, though, I
judge Halladay to have been the superior hurler, and his two Cy Young Awards
(Pettitte had none) and two no-hitters (one a perfect game) support that view.
Halladay
died at age 40 in a 2015 private-plane accident, something that brought
heightened attention to his career. Pettitte will be hurt by drugs-related
blemishes, mostly his admitted use of the banned Human Growth Hormone in
treating a mid-career elbow injury. I expect Halladay to outpoll him this time
and am curious to see how he’ll fare in future years.
Helton
was a terrific hitter in his 17-year career—2,519 hits, 369 home runs and a
lifetime .316 batting average—but all of it was with the Colorado Rockies,
perennial also-rans whose rare-air home clime is viewed suspiciously when
batting records are assessed. His stats are close to those of another excellent
ex-Rockies batsman, Larry Walker, who hasn’t polled higher than 34% in his nine
years on the ballot. I think Helton will do better that but not by much at
first.
As
always, much of the fan interest in the voting will concern the fates of Barry
Bonds and Roger Clemens, the no-doubt-doper duo. They’ve performed about in
tandem since first appearing on the ballot in 2013, going from an initial 36-37%
to 56-57% last year. Barring new rules, or some startling
development, it’s hard to see how they could vault to 75% this year. If they
fail to do so by 2023 they’ll be passed along to one of the Veterans Committees.
The ways of those panels are mysterious, so anything can happen after that.
Sixteen
more men are ballot first timers. They are, alphabetically, Rick Ankiel, Jason
Bay, Lance Berkman, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia, Travis Hafner, Ted Lilly, Derek
Lowe, Darren Oliver, Roy Oswalt, Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco, Miguel Tejada,
Vernon Wells, Kevin Youklis and Michael Young.
All were fine players and, maybe, great fellas, but it’s tough to envision
a Cooperstown plaque for any of them. Indeed, most probably won’t get the 5% of
the vote necessary to be on next year’s ballot. Berkman, Garcia, Polanco and
Tejada seem to me to have the best chance of sticking, but I wouldn’t bet on
any of them.
But
Hall electors of various stripe are capable of surprising. The newly elected
Baines, for instance, never got more the 6.1% of the vote in his five years on
the sportswriters’ ballot. Old timers Gabby Harnett and Charlie Gehringer each
got zero votes their first time around, in 1936, before eventually being
elected by the scribes, Gehringer in 1949 and Harnett in 1955. That was long
ago, and the voting rules have changed, but still…
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