HANDICAPPING THE HALL

 

               Baseball’s HITS (Heads In The Sand) era, stretching from about 1990 to 2005, when it finally got around to penalizing players found to use performance-enhancing steroid drugs, may be over, but the malady lingers on. Not only does steroid use continue in the game (albeit at a reduced rate) but the issue pops up again every year at this time, when voters ponder candidates for its Hall of Fame.

               Indeed, steroid use will be the main theme of the 2022 voting, with BARRY BONDS and ROGER CLEMENS up for their tenth and final year on the sportswriters’ ballot and ALEX RODRIGUEZ and DAVID ORTIZ leading the list of new nominees.

Slugger Bonds and pitcher Clemens were the best at what they did during long playing careers that ended in 2007, but multiple and sometimes sworn testimony to their guilt as users has turned their cases into an annual referendum on the subject, with each so far failing to meet the 75% majority needed for election. Running as a kind of entry, their ballot count has climbed from about 36% in 2013 to just over 60% last year, but it’s been on a 60% plateau for the last several years and a jump to 75 this time seems unlikely.

 If the two again fall short they will be transferred to one of the veterans’ committees the Hall maintains for candidates that may merit further review. The standards of those groups are lower than those of the writers, and in the 1973 movie “Sleepers,” set in the distant future, the Woody Allen character said tobacco was found to be a health food, so who knows what may lie ahead.

ARod and Ortiz both were tarred with the steroids brush, but mostly ARod. He’s been a kind of poster boy for PEDS, busted in tests not once but twice. The first in 2004, spanning the 2001-03 seasons in which he hit 156 of his 696 career home runs, carried no penalty because there was none at the time. The second resulted in a suspension for the entire 2014 season, the longest such action before or since.

 He screamed bloody murder after that last one, spraying denials and threatening to sue everyone in sight. He even organized a “fan protest” picketing of Commissioner Bud Selig’s office on his behalf, a move that caused chuckles. With time he fessed up and now enjoys a prosperous retirement. Don’t feel sorry for him because he’s an ESPN baseball analyst, Jennifer Lopez is or was his girlfriend and he’s worth a reported $400 million. But don’t expect to see his plaque in Cooperstown any time soon.

Ortiz reportedly was named in a 2003 document fingering some 100 major leaguers as users, but that supposedly secret doc has been disputed. He’s denied it and, loath to tar their stars, baseball execs have supported him in that. His baseball stats, including 541 career homers and 1,768 runs batted in, support his candidacy. So does a rosy public image as the good-natured “Big Papi” who brought joy to his Boston Red Sox constituency. He’ll be elected, it says here.

There are 13 first-timers on the 2022 ballot, and just a few besides ARod and Ortiz rate prolonged scrutiny.  These include a couple of former Philadelphia Phillies, JIMMY ROLLINS and RYAN HOWARD. Shortstop Rollins played for 17 seasons (2000-2016). He accumulated a notable 2,455 hits, and was the 2007 National League Most Valuable Player, but by me he fit into the very-good-but-not-great category most of the time. Big first-baseman Howard was the 2006 MVP with a monster year (58 home runs, 149 RBIs), but while he was a star in the early half of a 13-year career (2004-2016) he tailed off badly after suffering a torn Achilles tendon in a 2011 playoff game.

TIM LINCECUM stands out in memory as a frail-looking young man with an exaggerated delivery, but while the San Francisco Giants’ pitcher wowed ‘em for several seasons (2008-2011) his time at the top didn’t add up to the Hall. I expect that he, Rollins and Howard will get enough votes to stay on the ballot in future years, but not enough for quick election.

The other newcomers are MARK TEIXEIRA, A.J. PIERZYNSKI, JAKE PEAVY, JONATHAN PAPELBON, JOE NATHAN, JUSTIN MORNEAU, CARL CRAWFORD and PRINCE FIELDER.

Among the 15 holdovers none is more interesting than CURT SCHILLING. The 20-season-veteran pitcher, in his 10^th and last year on the ballot, polled 71% the last time around, and nobody who’s gotten that close didn’t get elected the next time. Schilling, however, has been anything but curt in his off-field utterances. He’s been a regular on right-wing media and in Trumpian style has blasted the press collectively and individually, hardly endearing himself to this particular electorate.

After last year’s voting Schilling said he wanted off the ballot. “The writers hate my politics,” he declared. I wondered if that included the nearly three quarters who wanted him in and, anyway, he doesn’t get to make that call. I don’t agree with his politics but admired his pitching (216 wins and 3,116 strikeouts, 15^th all-time) and voted for him several times when I could. My guess is that he’ll succeed this time. I can’t wait to hear his acceptance speech, if he chooses to make one.

SCOTT ROLEN, the former third baseman in his fifth year on the ballot, polled 53% last year and probably will come up short again. Ditto for OMAR VIZQUEL  and GARY SHEFFIELD, who narrowly trailed Rolen in 2021.

That leaves Ortiz and Schilling as the sole likely  sportswriters’ electees when the votes are counted next month, but they’ll have plenty of company at the induction. That’s because two of the Hall’s several veterans’ committees elected a total of six old-timers to membership, including GIL HODGES and MINNIE MINOSO. The committees offer a side door to the Hall that, in my view, is overused. I’ll do a blog on that one day.