DERBY PICKS

 

               In the “Who Says There’s No Good News?” department, a notable entry last year. The Stronach Group and the state of Arizona settled their dispute, allowing AZ horseplayers to again watch the simulcasts from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, among other Stronach tracks. Thus, at Kentucky Derby time, I’ve had a decent chance to be prepared and share my views on the race with you, my dear readers.  At no charge, of course-- extra or otherwise.

               The Derby has been interesting during my two-year hiatus. In 2021 the winner on the race course, Medina Spirit, was disqualified months later for a drug violation, and last year an 80-to-1 shot, Rich Strike, snuck past two battling favorites at the wire to cause agita coast to coast. Add the 2019 race, when winner Maximum Security was taken down for interference and the 65-to-1 runnerup replaced him in the winners’ circle, and the warning to “hold all tickets” never has seemed more apt.

                  A return to what Warren G. Harding called “normalcy” would dictate that a favorite prevail this year, and there’s a clear one. He’s Forte (post position 15), who leads the field in wins (6, of 7 starts) and money won (about $2.4 million), and was both the two-year-old champion and the dominant three-year-old on the busy Florida winter circuit. About the only knock against him was that he won the Florida Derby by a scant length after going off at 1-to-5. A 1-to-5 shot is expected to win by a city block.

               So I’ll have Forte in my exacta tickets, but he’ll go off at 3-to-1 or less and to make any money I’ll have to pair him with longer shots. Also on both my tickets will be Angel of Empire, (PP.14), 8-to-1 in the morning line. He’s a late-runner who won two Derby preps by daylight margins. Because of the odds I’ll be rooting mainly for him.

                 The nice thing about the Derby is that you get double-digit odds on very-good horses. I’ll put two of those—Kingsbarns,  (PP. 6) and Two Phils, (PP.3)—on one of my tickets. Both are 12-to-1 in the morning line. Kingsbarns runs in front-- always a good place to be—and Two Phils travels well, having won races at four different tracks.

               On my other ticket I’ll have Derma Sotogake, (PP. 17), and Mage, (PP.8). Derma, off at 10-to-1, is Japanese owned and trained, and those horses have been doing well worldwide. Mage, 15-to-1, was a close second to Forte in the Florida Derby, so he seems to belong among the best.

               To summarize, barring late scratches and mind changes I’ll bet two $1, four-horse exacta boxes—3-6-14-15 and 8-14-15-17—costing a modest $24. Putting down a few bucks makes any race more interesting.  Enjoy.